In lieu of our regular weekly update, we notify you that we will publish the February issue this week.
In a rough beginning of the year for investors, we review how our core ETFs have fared amid market turmoil, and what their performance suggest about the rest of the year. We also review recent economic data and discuss why corporate execs' outlooks may not reflect the true state of the economy. We also discuss what our latest indicator signals say about the near-term direction of stocks, bonds, and precious metals.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the decision-making arm of the Federal Reserve, convenes this week to determine the next leg of monetary policy. While the Fed incrementally hiked the overnight lending rate at the last meeting in mid-December, this time the FOMC seems unlikely to further tighten. Read more about Fed on Deck 01-26-16
China reported today that its GDP rose 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to the same period a year ago. For all of 2015, its economy expanded 6.9 percent, slightly below but largely in line with Beijing’s official 7 percent target. In 2014, China’s GDP grew 7.3 percent. Separately, China reported that retail sales increased 11.1 percent and industrial production 5.9 percent. Both were a tad below expectations, but showed that the Middle Kingdom is holding up better than market participants feared. Read more about China and Oil Again Capture Attention 01-19-16
In just seven trading sessions in the 2016 so far, oil—WTI crude—has already declined about 17 percent. It has yet to book a positive day this year and today oil briefly dipped below the $30 mark before rebounding slightly.
A new terrorist suicide attack in the heart of Istanbul—which threatens to enlarge the scale of the ongoing Middle East conflicts—and news that certain OPEC members have requested an emergency meeting helped the slight recovery but oil market sentiment nevertheless remains decidedly bearish. Read more about The Oil Decline Continues 01-12-16