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A Cold Day for the Market 01-27-15

As Winter Storm Juno blankets the Northeast with snow, the stock market is up and running, albeit on light trade volume. At mid-day, the S&P 500 is down roughly 1.3 percent while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down a greater 1.8 percent due to disappointing quarterly report cards from several of its component companies, including Caterpillar and Microsoft. Since the Dow includes only 30 stocks, big changes from any one will have a larger impact on the overall index compared to the S&P, which has 500 stocks.

Downbeat Forecasts Pressure the ECB 01-20-15

Attention is on Frankfurt this week, where top European Central Bank (ECB) officials will convene Thursday to decide the course of monetary policy. With the euro zone economy in bad shape, deflation an increasing threat, and an important Greek election looming this weekend, it is expected that the ECB will have additional easing—perhaps another round of bond purchases—up its sleeve.

As if to pressure regulators to act, the World Bank and the IMF both lowered their global growth outlooks, the World Bank last week and the IMF today. Read more about Downbeat Forecasts Pressure the ECB 01-20-15

Good Start Fizzles 01-13-15

Alcoa reported earnings after yesterday’s market close, kicking off the earnings season for the final 2014 quarter. Thanks to strong automotive demand and lower energy costs, the aluminum maker beat the Street’s revenue and earnings expectations by sizeable margins, seemingly setting a positive tone for the corporations to report in the ensuing weeks. Read more about Good Start Fizzles 01-13-15

And Here We Go Again 01-06-15

After the worst year since 2008 in 2014, less than a week into the new year, oil has extended its losses. West Texas Intermediate crude, the benchmark for domestic oil, in just three trading days has retreated 10 percent from its 2014 close to roughly $48, the lowest mark since the first quarter of 2009. London-traded Brent crude, the international gauge, likewise fell to another multi-year low, ending today near $51, an 11 percent drop thus far in 2015. Read more about And Here We Go Again 01-06-15

New Year, Old Portfolio 12-30-14

As 2014 winds down, and people here in New York prepare to ring in the New Year at Times Square, we too are thinking about the upcoming year, unwilling to drop the metaphorical ball as 2015 unfolds.

In the latest issue, published just last week, we talked about our vision for 2015, reviewed priorities for our portfolios, and stressed the need to hold hedges in the market that we expect to see, going forward.   Read more about New Year, Old Portfolio 12-30-14

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January 2015

The Pieces Are Moving

Oil's fall in the second half of the year was the biggest story in 2014. Oil will be one of the most important variables to watch in 2015, but China, too, will figure prominently in 2015. We discuss why the West's actions against Russia plays into China's hands. We unveil several bold predictions that, if they were to occur, would have major investment ramifications.

In addition, we review our indicators' predictions from last month and discuss what they are saying about the month ahead. One indicator, in particular, is predicting better times ahead after flashing a bearish signal for a long time. Read more about The Pieces Are Moving

Issue Preview 12-23-14

On Friday we will publish the January 2015 issue of The Cash Cow. Last month, our stock indicator accurately predicted the brief, but sharp, market pullback. Subsequently, we notified you in last week’s Weekly Update that the indicator has turned moderately bullish, and stocks have more than recovered the lost ground since. We will examine what our indicators say this month about the direction of stocks, bonds, and precious metals in the near term. Read more about Issue Preview 12-23-14