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The Fed to Keep the Reins Loose 10-28-14

The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting board, meets this week and will announce its latest policy decision tomorrow afternoon. Observers widely expect Janet Yellen and company to announce the end of the latest iteration of the Fed asset purchase program (aka QE3). Increased market volatility in recent weeks, however, alongside the strong dollar, and uncertainty over global economic stability and the possible impact on the U.S. recovery, had sparked speculation that the end of QE may be delayed. Fed officials have publicly acknowledged the possibility. Read more about The Fed to Keep the Reins Loose 10-28-14

Stimulus Eyed

Investors Look to Central Banks for Relief

Worries about a slowdown in global growth, geopolitical problems and fears of ebola culminated in a volatile month for the markets. In mid-October, the S&P 500 fell to nearly 10 percent off its September peak, but the blue chips ultimately held just shy of that benchmark. It would have been the first such correction since 2011.     Read more about Stimulus Eyed

Be Alert but Don't Panic 10-14-14

Though it failed to hold most of its early gains, the U.S. market ended a losing streak today, after the biggest three-day selloff since 2011 saw the S&P 500 fall nearly 5 percent since last Thursday. The early third-quarter results for the companies that have reported have been generally good. As of this writing, of the 34 S&P 500 companies who have reported, 25 (73 percent) beat expectations while 24 (70 percent) beat on sales, suggesting that overall quarterly corporate results should be along historical norms. Read more about Be Alert but Don't Panic 10-14-14

The IMF Cuts Again 10-07-14

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a somber quarterly World Economic Outlook report today, highlighting growth concerns worldwide. With a penchant for overly optimistic predictions, not surprisingly it has once again had to revise downward its previous growth projection (for the ninth time in the last three years). The IMF now forecasts 2014 global growth of 3.3 percent. Previously, in July, the organization had predicted 3.4 percent growth, and before that, in April, 3.7 percent. The IMF also cut its 2015 growth outlook to 3.8 percent from 4 percent. Read more about The IMF Cuts Again 10-07-14

Hong Kong at a Standstill, But China Keeps Moving 09-30-14

In demanding the resignation of Chief Executive C.Y. Leung and the right to freely select their own candidates to government, tens of thousands of protestors have flooded Hong Kong’s streets and effectively shut down major parts of the city. While there were serious clashes with police over the weekend, plus numerous injuries and arrests, compared to other protests globally, so far this has been a remarkably peaceful affair. Read more about Hong Kong at a Standstill, But China Keeps Moving 09-30-14

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October 2014

What to Make of the Scottish Referendum

In the Indicator section, we review how our indicator predictions from last month fared (hint: they were on the money) and take a look at what they are saying for stocks, bonds, and precious metals for the near term. We adjust the indicator-related ETFs in stocks and precious metals.

We also examine what the Scottish referendum and explore its implications on the U.K. and the rest of Europe.

See the issue for details.

  Read more about What to Make of the Scottish Referendum

Potential Market-Moving Events Ahead 09-16-14

As we write to you, the latest two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting to determine the next step on monetary policy is in progress. Market participants will no doubt scrutinize the FOMC statement, to be released tomorrow afternoon, for hints of changes in the Fed’s expected course of action in regards to the federal funds rate. Read more about Potential Market-Moving Events Ahead 09-16-14